2020-09-16 • Dikemaskini
In one of the recent interviews, Donald Trump claimed that the US pharma sector is three to four weeks away from the vaccine for the Covid-19. He mentioned Pfizer (the primary candidate to win the vaccine race, competes mainly with Moderna) and Johnson&Johnson (never appeared in the media headlines as vaccine developer until now). Very possibly, that is another pre-election move to spark the interest of the audience. On the other hand, he is not the only country leader who “reports” that the vaccine is coming: China did the same recently, not to mention Russia. So it appears that the world pharma sector is indeed somewhere close to the final stages of the vaccine. What does it mean? Those companies that manage to develop the vaccine first will probably see the cost of their shares rise in value. Let’s have a look at the main candidates and our technical targets to prepare for that.
On the below chart, the technical layout is pretty clear. Pfizer’s stock price descended from the heights of above $40 where it used to be during 2018-2019 to the depths of $30 during the crisis. Since March, it made two marches upwards, and we seem to witness the third one now. However, in none of those marches it managed to break the roof of $39. Now, as it is approaching this resistance, so is nearing the verbal deadline of 3-4 weeks announced by the US President. If there are positive signs of the vaccine development as the days go by, we are likely to see this resistance broken. In this scenario, the closest target for the stock price will be $41. Otherwise, is Pfizer doesn’t manage to deliver on time, the stock price is likely to bounce downwards from the resistance to make another dip to the trend bottom.
Moderna’s stock price used to go downwards in an equilateral channel since July. The last day’s candlestick in the chart below is clearly of that trend so it can now be discarded as a possible reference for levels. In the meantime, there is another channel where Moderna used to trade: a sideways trend with the bottom at $57 and the upper border at $68. The latter is the local resistance that is being tested by the price currently. If Moderna manages to cross it with confidence, it will likely aim at a tactical high of $95 as the far horizon – that is, if it is announced as a successful vaccine developer.
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