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NZD/CAD: trend collision
2020-04-29 • Dikemaskini
Short term
The NZD has been frequently appearing in the “Best performers” list lately. That is because New Zealand, similar to Australia, managed the virus pretty well and is lucky to be among the first countries to get out of the hibernation state together with China.
Although the NZD/CAD, particularly, presents a volatile picture, still we see that the NZD keeps fighting and has been doing that pretty well. The short-term picture is oriented sideways and at the very least gives the same hope for bulls as the bears may take. Note that the Moving Averages have started to reconfigure themselves in ascending order during the last week, which indicates an intention to rise. Fair enough, what is the long-term layout then?
Long term
One-year horizon gives a different scenario. Generally, the NZD/CAD is in decline. The volatility is there, but the downturn is pretty consistent, although not without intermittent upswings. The very last episode, apart from a highly volatile earthquake-like behavior, gives a bullish impression. That trend collides with the larger downward trajectory almost exactly where the currency trades now. That suggests that we will see, first of all, further volatility as the two trends will be fighting to impose one of another. Secondly, we are still likely to have NZD/CAD keep losing value in the long-term as the fundamentals suggest. However, the short-term picture is probably going to be sideways, as it appears from the H1 chart.
Resistance: 0.8510; 0.8550
Support: 0.8430; 0.8390
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