2020-02-27 • Dikemaskini
Key indicators
Performance in 2020: -23%
Last day range: $52.50 – $53
52-week range: $52.50 - $75
Oil’s breakeven price
Next Thursday, OPEC will hold its extraordinary (meaning, urgent) meeting in Vienna. Why? Because to many oil-exporting countries from the Middle East (they make the bulk of OPEC) such as Saudi Arabia, $50 per barrel is approximately the breakeven price. That means, the current price of oil leaves little room for those countries to extract as many profits as were planning for – if any. Hence, the urgency of the meeting.
That gains even stronger momentum as there are larger disagreements within the OPEC+ (where Russia is a key player) about further cutting the supply, which is the main (if not only) lever the cartel can use to support the oil price.
Very probably, the dynamics of the global Coronavirus spread outside China will strongly impact the decision to be taken at the meeting on March 5. And the intrigue is: although the issue becomes clearer with China itself (infection pace decreases, projections for confident virus containment are set in mid-April), what about the rest of the world, especially the US? We are yet to see that. As well as Mohammed Barkindo, OPEC Secretary-General.
One thing is for sure: OPEC will use all means to stop the oil price slumping. If we hear strong measures announced by Mr. Barkindo in line with confident virus containment plans by the global community by next Thursday, very likely oil (Brent, in our chart) will get back to $60-70$ channel of movement.
Technical levels
Resistance $60
Support $50
Dua tahun ini, kita menyaksikan pergerakan harga minyak terbesar dalam tempoh 14 tahun, yang membingungkan pasaran, pelabur dan pedagang akibat ketegangan geopolitik dan peralihan ke tenaga bersih.
Selepas beberapa bulan menerima tekanan dari Rumah Putih, Arab Saudi mengalah dan bersetuju untuk meningkatkan pengeluaran bersama dengan ahli-ahli OPEC+ yang lain.
Pada hari Khamis, 2 Jun, Pertubuhan Negara-Negara Pengeksport Petroleum Plus (OPEC+) telah bersetuju untuk meningkatkan pengeluaran sebanyak 648,000 tong sehari (bpd) pada bulan Julai dan Ogos.
Fed mengumumkan pada hari Rabu bahawa ia membiarkan kadar dasar tidak berubah pada 5…
Jepun melangkah lebih dekat kepada campur tangan mata wang dengan amaran terkuatnya apabila yen merosot ke paras paling lemah dalam kira-kira 34 tahun berbanding dolar…
Sentimen pasaran yang memulih pada pembukaan dagangan awal minggu semalam telah menukar semula haluan pergerakan USD…
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